Hello Akvan,
The question has been raised before. If such a one goes to the apayas anytime in the future, but not immediately after death, then it could not be said: ‘he does not go to the apayas’.
(However… in the case of the 4 classes of Ariyas, the word ‘parimutto’- exempt, released, delivered -is given, while in the last two cases, those who have gone for Refuge, the word is ‘aganta’ -does not go. Now my understanding of Pali is limited to key words and their derivatives and may be faulty or lacking, so I leave any bearing that the different meaning of the words may have to others.)
As I read, the Sutta is saying that although he is not a Sotapanna, therefore not an Ariya, and not even a Sotapanna anugami (for these too have aveccappasada in the Buddha), he who has just started out on the Path, through either intellectual investigation into the Dhamma or through an intuitive trust in the Buddha – he has gone for Refuge, that is, having seen that life is full of suffering, physical, mental and emotional, having for a long time not come up with a solution, with a way out of this suffering, now he sees a way out. The all-important first step has been taken, progress is now possible. The question here arises: but will he continue on the Path or will he fall away? If he is to progress, he has to be free of the apayas. And if the Sutta says that he is free of the apayas, then he will progress.
So, Akvan, I see this as the preliminary stage to the Path.
Metta
(My last post took a full 2 days to show on the Forum. I have found that clicking on my name and on ‘replies created’ will show it. So this tack may be used by anyone expecting a reply from a participant.)